Kev tshuaj xyuas ntawm cov hlau ua lag luam nyob rau lub Yim Hli, raws li 31 hnub, txawm hais tias tus nqi steel muaj qhov rov qab me me thaum lub sijhawm, tab sis feem ntau ntawm lub sijhawm ua haujlwm ntawm kev poob siab, steel composite nqi Performance index poob 89 ntsiab lus, xov thiab hlau poob. 97 thiab 88 cov ntsiab lus, nruab nrab thiab tuab phaj, kub dov nqi poob 103, 132, txias dov nqi tiaj tus.62% ntawm cov hlau ore nqi nce 6 US las, coke composite nqi index rebounded 6 ntsiab lus, seem steel nqi poob 48 ntsiab lus, los ntawm qhov nruab nrab nqi taw tes, composite steel nqi, kub dov thiab txias phaj rebounded 1, 32 thiab 113 ntsiab lus, xov, hlau thiab phaj poob 47, 44 thiab 17 ntsiab lus raws.Cov khoom tiav tsis muaj zog tshaj qhov xav tau, thiab cov roj nyoos muaj zog dua li qhov xav tau.Txawm li cas los xij, hauv tsab ntawv tshaj tawm lub hli dhau los, nws kuj tau hais meej meej tias kev tsaws ntawm txoj cai txwv kev tsim khoom yog lub hauv paus rau kev rov qab los, thiab nws yog ib qho tsim nyog los tiv thaiv kev lag luam los ntawm kev txwv kev tsim khoom.Nrhiav rau pem hauv ntej rau kev lag luam steel nyob rau lub Cuaj Hli, steel mills tau tswj ntau lawm, steel nqi yog yooj yim nce thiab nyuaj rau poob, thiab cov roj nyoos yog yooj yim poob thiab nyuaj rau sawv.
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Hauv kev lag luam steel thaum Lub Yim Hli, nws tsis tsim nyog hais tias txawm hais tias tsis hais txog txoj cai tswj hwm kev tsim khoom, nyob rau hauv cov ntsiab lus ntawm cov kev xav tau ntawm lub caij nyoog poob qis, steel mills xav xaiv los tswj cov qib ntau lawm, tab sis kuj tsis kam txo cov khoom tsim tawm, ua rau muaj kev cuam tshuam loj heev. nyob rau hauv steel zeb profitability poob los ntawm 64.94% mus rau 51.08%, steel mills tuaj yeem hais tias tau khaws cov noob qoob loo poob, qee qhov tsis tuaj yeem khaws cov noob hnav.
Txawm hais tias kev saib xyuas ntawm steel ntau lawm tau txo cov nyiaj txiag hauv zos rau qee qhov, nws tau ua rau cov kev txaus siab ntawm kev lag luam thiab kev lag luam, thiab thaum kawg ua rau lub teb chaws nyiam (los ntawm kev tsis sib haum xeeb thawb tus nqi ntawm cov hlau ore).
Saib rau pem hauv ntej rau kev lag luam steel hauv lub Cuaj Hli, cov nqi steel tseem muaj theem siab, feem ntau hauv:
Thawj yog lub siab ntawm kev muab khoom, los ntawm cov ntaub ntawv ntawm lub koomhaum steel, qhov nruab nrab txhua hnub tso tawm ntawm cov hlau molten nyob rau nruab nrab thiab lub Yim Hli lig yog 2.456 lab tons, thiab cov khoom tsim tawm ntawm cov hlau molten nyob rau lub lim tiam kawg ntawm lub hli kawg. tsis poob qis, uas yog nyob rau theem siab, ua rau muaj kev kub ntxhov ntawm kev ua lag luam nyob rau nruab nrab lub Cuaj Hli.
Qhov thib ob yog lub siab ntawm kev thov, qhov nruab nrab txhua hnub kev hloov pauv ntawm cov khoom siv hauv lub Yim Hli yog txog 145,000 tons, lub peev ntawm infrastructure, vaj tse thiab kev tsim kho tshiab tseem muaj kev cuam tshuam rau qhov kev thov tso tawm rau lub Cuaj Hli, txawm hais tias qhov kev thov raws caij nyoog yuav muaj kev xav tau. qee qhov kev tso tawm, tab sis lub zog tag nrho tseem tsis txaus, lub siab tseem muaj.Hais txog kev xa tawm, tus nqi sib txawv ntawm tsev thiab txawv teb chaws tau nqaim ntxiv, thiab kev thov txawv teb chaws tau poob, uas tseem yuav ua rau kev xa tawm ncaj qha thiab ncaj qha ntawm cov khoom hlau poob ntxiv.
Tsis tas li ntawd, cov roj tseem ceeb yuav qhib rau theem pib ntawm kev poob rau lub Cuaj Hli, thiab tus nqi hlau yuav ua rau qee theem luag.
Thaum lub Cuaj Hlis, txawm tias tus nqi hlau poob, qhov chaw tsis tshua muaj kev txwv, ua ntej, lub tshuab steel tam sim no tseem yog ib nrab ntawm cov neeg ua haujlwm tau txais txiaj ntsig, thiab txawm tias muaj cov txiaj ntsig, nws yog qhov tsis txaus ntseeg, steel poob 50 txog 100 yuan / tuj, profitable steel mills, tej zaum yuav rov qab mus txog li 30%, thaum lub sij hawm ntawd, tsis tas yuav txwv ntau lawm, steel mills tseem yuav nquag txo kev tsim khoom, ua cov khoom siv thiab kev xav tau rov qab, thiab tus nqi kho.
Saib ua ntej mus rau kev lag luam steel nyob rau lub Cuaj Hli, cov ntsiab lus tseem ceeb uas ua rau nws yooj yim dua rau cov nqi hlau rov qab:
Ua ntej, macro kev xav tau raug kho.Saib xyuas qhov macro diffusion Performance index ntawm Guosen Securities nyob rau lub lim tiam ntawm Lub Yim Hli 25, uas tau thim rov qab rau ob lub lis piam sib law liag, qhia tias kev lag luam tau nce ntxiv, tshwj xeeb tshaj yog tom qab kev tsim qauv raws caij nyoog, thiab txuas ntxiv nce, uas zoo dua li qhov nruab nrab ntawm keeb kwm. , thiab qhia tau hais tias kev lag luam rov qab zoo.Thaum Lub Yim Hli 29, lub rooj sib tham thib tsib ntawm Pawg Neeg Sawv Cev ntawm Pawg Neeg Sawv Cev Hauv Lub Tebchaws 14 tau tshuaj xyuas tsab ntawv ceeb toom ntawm Lub Xeev Pawg Neeg Saib Xyuas Kev Siv Nyiaj txij li pib xyoo no rau hnub tim 28, thiab qhia meej tias ib qho ntawm tsib lub ntsiab lus tseem ceeb. Cov haujlwm nyiaj txiag hauv cov kauj ruam tom ntej yog los tiv thaiv thiab tiv thaiv tsoomfwv cov nuj nqis txaus ntshai.Lub hauv paus tseem ceeb txhawb nqa tsoomfwv hauv nroog hauv kev daws cov teebmeem kev pheej hmoo zais cia, hais kom tsoomfwv hauv nroog tswj hwm txhua yam ntawm cov nyiaj, cov khoom muaj nqis, cov peev txheej thiab ntau yam kev txhawb nqa thiab kev ntsuas, tsom mus rau lub nroog thiab cov nroog kom hnyav lawv txoj haujlwm, kom daws tau cov nuj nqis uas twb muaj lawm, optimize lub sij hawm qauv, txo cov paj laum, thiab maj mam txo cov nuj nqis txaus ntshai.Tsis tas li ntawd, txoj cai ntawm kev lees paub vaj tse thiab tsis lees paub cov nyiaj qiv tau raug qhib, thiab tej zaum yuav muaj kev txav loj nyob rau yav tom ntej, uas kuj txo qhov kev ntxhov siab.
Qhov thib ob, steel yog ib qho me me rebound nyob rau hauv no yoj ntawm cov khoom, muaj chaw kho.Saib xyuas Mandarin cov khoom lag luam Performance index, rebounded los ntawm 165.72 thaum kawg ntawm lub Tsib Hlis mus rau 189.14 thaum Lub Yim Hli 30, qhov rov zoo ntawm 14.1%, xov 10 daim ntawv cog lus tau rov qab los ntawm 3388 thaum kawg ntawm lub Tsib Hlis mus rau 3717 ntawm 30th, ib qho rov qab ntawm 9.7%, ob peb yam khoom kuj tshwm sim ua lag luam ob npaug.Yog tias koj tsuas yog saib ntawm koj tus kheej lub hauv paus, cov hauv paus ntsiab lus ntawm cov xov tsis yog qhov phem, thiab muaj txoj cai kev lag luam (muaj peev xwm ntau lawm, tso tawm ob npaug rau kev tswj), yuav tsum muaj chaw kho.
Thib peb, cov kev xav tau steel yuav tsum tau nce raws caij nyoog hauv lub Cuaj Hli.Los ntawm kev soj ntsuam cov ntaub ntawv steel union, lub yim hli ntuj crude steel ntau lawm tej zaum yuav tsis poob tab sis nce, nws yog kwv yees hais tias qhov nruab nrab txhua hnub ntau lawm los yog txog 2.95 lab tons, thiab cov piv txwv cov khoom muag ntawm steel union cov txheeb cais yuav nce 330,000 tons, qhia tias crude steel. kev noj nyob rau lub Yim Hli hauv Lub Xya Hli tau nce li ntawm 10.5% hauv keeb kwm yav dhau, nws tseem muaj peev xwm tswj tau txog 10% xyoo-rau-xyoo kev loj hlob, thiab qhov kev thov tau pib tsis poob.Nyob rau lub Cuaj Hli, nrog rau qhov kub thiab txias, kev tsim kho dua tshiab tom qab dej nyab, qhov project maj, thiab lwm yam, qhov kev thov yuav tsum nce ntxiv rau tib lub sijhawm thiab lub hli ntawm lub hli.
Raws li kev tshawb fawb txog kev tsim kho ib puas xyoo, qhov kev xav tau ntawm kev lag luam hauv qab: cov cement tso tawm ntawm 250 lub tuam txhab yog 5.629 lab tons, uas yog +5.05% (tus nqi dhau los +1.93) thiab -28.3% (tus nqi dhau los -31.2).Los ntawm ib cheeb tsam ntawm qhov kev pom, tsuas yog Tuam Tshoj sab qab teb tau cuam tshuam los ntawm cov dej nag ntau ntxiv, uas poob qis rau lub hli, thaum North China, Southwest, Northwest, Central Tuam Tshoj, East Tuam Tshoj thiab Northeast Tuam Tshoj tag nrho cov rebounded.Kev thov rau cov phiaj xwm loj hauv kev lag luam: cement ncaj qha khoom ntawm 2.17 lab tons, +4.3% sequentially (tus nqi dhau los +1.5), xyoo-rau-xyoo-4.8% (tus nqi dhau los -5.5).Ntawm ib sab, qee qhov xwm txheej hauv cheeb tsam tab tom yuav muaj, thiab cov phiaj xwm kev tsim kho vaj tse muaj cov sijhawm kawg;Ntawm qhov tod tes, tus naj npawb ntawm cov phiaj xwm pib tshiab tau nce, thiab qhov kev thov rau cov khoom siv hauv tsev rau qee qhov ua tiav tau rov ua dua.Kev tsim vaj tsev xav tau: Cov pob zeb thauj khoom ntim ntawm 506 qhov chaw sib xyaw yog 2.201 lab square metres, +2.5% lub lis piam-rau-lub lim tiam (tus nqi dhau los +1.9), thiab -21.5% xyoo-rau-xyoo (tus nqi dhau los -30.5).Los ntawm lub regional taw tes ntawm view, vim hais tias lub demolition thiab reconstruction ntawm ib co chaw nres tsheb nyob rau hauv North Tuam Tshoj, lub ntim ntawm cov tsheb yog txo, thiab lub ntim ntawm cov tsheb nyob rau hauv South Tuam Tshoj yog txo tom qab los nag, thaum lub Central Tuam Tshoj, Southwest, Northeast, Northwest thiab East Tuam Tshoj tau nce.Cov kev cai zoo rau lub sijhawm ntev, kev yuav khoom qis qis tau nce rau peb lub lis piam.Txij thaum Lub Yim Hli 21 txog Lub Yim Hli 27, tag nrho thaj tsam ntawm cov vaj tsev lag luam tshiab hauv 8 lub nroog tseem ceeb yog 1,942,300 square metres, nce 4.7% lub lis piam rau lub lis piam.Nyob rau tib lub sijhawm, tag nrho cheeb tsam ntawm kev lag luam vaj tsev thib ob (cov ntawv cog lus) hauv yim lub nroog tseem ceeb yog 1.319,800 square metres, nce 6.4% nyob rau ib asthiv-rau-lub lim tiam.
Los ntawm cov khoom muag kawg ntawm cov khoom tiav ntawm cov tuam txhab kev lag luam tso tawm los ntawm National Bureau of Statistics, nws tseem poob qis, poob mus rau 1.6% hauv Lub Xya Hli piv rau tib lub sijhawm xyoo tas los, thiab cov khoom muag poob 0.2% piv nrog tib lub sijhawm xyoo tas los, tag nrho cov uas yog nyob rau hauv ib tug kuj tsawg txoj hauj lwm nyob rau hauv keeb kwm.Cov ntaub ntawv sub-kev lag luam qhia tau hais tias cov khoom siv tsheb thauj mus los siab, kev lag luam tshuab hluav taws xob, nrog rau cov khoom muag qis ntawm kev sib txuas lus hauv computer, cov khoom siv dav dav thiab lwm yam kev lag luam tau tshwm sim cov cim ntawm kev rov ua dua, qhia tias qhov kev thov rau cov khoom siv hauv tsev tau poob rau tib lub sijhawm. , kev loj hlob ntawm manufacturing steel xav tau tag nrho ua rau qhov sib txawv.Qhov kev xav no yuav tsum txuas ntxiv mus, tej zaum nyob rau lub Cuaj Hli, yuav muaj kev tso tawm ntxiv ntawm qhov kev thov nruab nrab.Raws li cov qauv ntaub ntawv ntawm steel Union daim ntawv ntsuam xyuas, nyob rau hauv lub Cuaj Hli Ntuj, cov niaj hnub noj ntawm raw cov ntaub ntawv nyob rau hauv steel qauv, tsheb thiab lwm yam steel industries nce los ntawm 3.23%, 8.57% thiab 8.89% feem, thiab cov machinery thiab cov khoom siv hauv tsev industries poob. los ntawm 4.07% thiab 7.35% feem.
Plaub, kev xa khoom ntawm cov hlau yog khi rau lub Cuaj Hli.Ntawm qhov tod tes, qee lub tuam txhab raug yuam kom txo qis kev tsim khoom thiab kho dua tshiab, lwm lub tuam txhab tau pib siv txoj cai txwv kev tsim khoom, thiab kev tswj hwm ib puag ncig tau nruj dua, uas tseem yuav ua rau muaj kev cuam tshuam rau kev tso tawm ntawm qee lub lag luam.Thaum Lub Yim Hli 15, Ministry of Ecology thiab Ib puag ncig, Ministry of Public Security thiab Supreme People's Procuratorate tau koom ua ke saib xyuas 11 rooj plaub ntawm kev saib xyuas tsis siv neeg cov ntaub ntawv cuav ntawm ib puag ncig muaj kuab paug los ntawm cov pa paug tawm tseem ceeb.Cov teeb meem 11 no tau raug xa mus los ntawm lub tuam tsev ecological ib puag ncig mus rau pej xeem kev ruaj ntseg hauv nruab nrog cev rau kev tshawb nrhiav thiab kev sib koom ua ke, suav nrog ntau lub lag luam hauv cuaj lub xeev, ob qho tib si cov pa paug paug thiab cov chaw ua haujlwm thib peb thiab kev saib xyuas.Raws li cov qauv kev soj ntsuam cov ntaub ntawv, ib tug me me ntawm cov qauv lag luam nyob rau hauv lub Cuaj Hli Ntuj xov ntau lawm nyob rau hauv lub yim hli ntuj los yog li 5% poob.
Vim qhov kev ncua sij hawm ntawm txoj cai tswj hwm kev tsim khoom los ntawm steel mills rau ntau yam laj thawj, raws li kev tsim tawm ntawm 17.28 lab tons hauv lub Ib Hlis mus txog Lub Xya Hli, tsawg kawg 7.5 lab nyob rau lub Yim Hli, uas yog, cov hlau tsis huv tau nce ntxiv. los ntawm kwv yees li 24.78 lab tons hauv Lub Ib Hlis txog Lub Yim Hli.Qhov no txhais tau hais tias nyob rau hauv 122 hnub txij lub Cuaj Hli mus txog Lub Kaum Ob Hlis, qhov nruab nrab hnub yuav tsum tau tsim tsawg dua 203,000 tons, thiab qhov nruab nrab txhua hnub crude steel ntau lawm txij lub Cuaj Hli mus txog rau lub Kaum Ob Hlis xyoo tas los yog 2.654 lab tons, uas txhais tau hais tias qhov nruab nrab txhua hnub crude steel tsim los ntawm Lub Cuaj Hli mus txog Lub Kaum Ob Hlis xyoo no tsis tuaj yeem tshaj 2.451 lab tons, uas tseem yog raws li cov txiaj ntsig ntawm kev tswj vaj huam sib luag los xam.Qhov no txhais tau hais tias qhov nruab nrab txhua hnub ntawm cov hlau tsis huv hauv lub xyoo yuav raug txo los ntawm 500,000 tons ntawm lub hauv paus tam sim no.
Yog li ntawd, los ntawm qhov kev xav saum toj no, steel nqi rov qab tsis yog qhov nyuaj.
Los ntawm qhov kev xav ntawm cov roj nyoos, txawm hais tias thaum pib ntawm lub xyoo, kuv kuj tau hais tias kev ua lag luam tau nkag mus rau theem tshiab ntawm kev ua lag luam tsis zoo, kev ntxhov siab, tsis muaj kab thiab tsis nkag siab, qhov tsis ntev los no tau nce ntxiv hauv cov nqi hlau ore, txawm hais tias peb paub qee qhov kev inevitable. yam tseem ceeb (hedging luv luv txoj hauj lwm, depreciation ntawm RMB pauv tus nqi, high-ceev hlau ntau lawm, tsawg ore inventory, thiab lwm yam), tab sis tseem muaj ntau lub suab nrov trading: Ntawm ib sab, qhov nruab nrab txhua hnub molten hlau ntawm 247 tuam txhab uas muag tau tag nrho. pauv, tab sis nws tsis quav ntsej qhov tseeb tias qhov nruab nrab niaj hnub npua hlau tsim ntawm Bureau of Statistics thaum Lub Xya Hli (2.503 lab tons) poob los ntawm 63,000 tons piv nrog rau Lub Rau Hli (2.566 lab tons).Ntawm qhov tod tes, tag nrho cov khoom lag luam qis ntawm cov hlau ore, tab sis tsis quav ntsej thawj 7 lub hlis ntawm npua hlau tsuas yog nce los ntawm 17.9 lab tons, thaum hlau ore imports ntau tshaj 43.21 lab tons thiab cov ore domestic nce los ntawm 34.59 lab tons (cia. ib leeg hais tias lub teb chaws hlau ore cov khoom lag luam tsis yog qhov tseem ceeb ntawm cov khoom muag ntau heev, steel zeb cov khoom muag poob los ntawm 9.65 lab tons);Tsis tas li ntawd, nws tau ua lag luam tag nrho cov nyiaj tau los ntawm cov mines txawv teb chaws, tab sis tsis quav ntsej cov txiaj ntsig me me thiab txawm tias poob ntawm cov tuam txhab steel ntau lawm;Tsis tas li ntawd, kev lag luam tag nrho cov kev muaj tiag thiab kev cia siab ntawm steel mills ib ntus tsis txo qis kev tsim khoom lossis txawm tias tswj kev tsim khoom yav tom ntej, tab sis tsis quav ntsej qhov hnyav thiab kev ntseeg siab ntawm ob txoj cai tswj hwm.Tam sim no qhov kev kub ntxhov siab ntawm cov hlau thiab qhov tsis sib haum xeeb rub tawm ntawm cov roj nyoos, nrog rau qhov pib ntawm txoj cai tsaws lub sijhawm nyob rau lub Cuaj Hli, los ntawm qhov kev xav ntawm kev hwm rau kev ua lag luam, ob qho tib si yuav ua rau lawv tus kheej tsim nyog rov qab los, tus nqi ntawm cov roj nyoos. tsuas yog qhov teeb meem ntawm lub sijhawm thiab kev sib dhos, qhov loj, qhov ntev dua, qhov ntau nws nce, qhov ntau dua qhov chaw rau yav tom ntej poob.
International Steel Association cov ntaub ntawv qhia tias txij Lub Ib Hlis Ntuj txog Lub Xya Hli, lub ntiaj teb npua hlau tsim ntawm 774 lab tons, nce 17 lab tons ntawm tib lub sijhawm xyoo tas los ntawm 757 lab tons, raws li 1 tuj ntawm npua hlau noj ntawm 1.6 tons ntawm hlau ore los ntsuas, ntau dua li tib lub sijhawm xyoo tas los los haus hlau ore ntawm ze li ntawm 27 lab tons.Ntawm lawv, Tuam Tshoj tau tsim 532 lab tons ntawm npua hlau, nce 24 lab tons los ntawm 508 lab tons hauv tib lub sijhawm xyoo tas los, thiab siv 38 lab tons ntxiv hlau ore.Lwm lub teb chaws 'molten hlau ntau lawm poob los ntawm 7 lab tons xyoo-rau-xyoo, thiab hlau ore noj poob los ntawm 11.2 lab tons.Nws tuaj yeem pom los ntawm WSA cov ntaub ntawv hais tias Tuam Tshoj tus npua hlau ntau lawm tau nce 4.7% xyoo-rau-xyoo, thiab nws qhov nce ntxiv rau 140% ntawm lub ntiaj teb nce ntxiv, uas yog hais tias, qhov nce hauv ntiaj teb hlau ore xav tau los ntawm Tuam Tshoj. .Txawm li cas los xij, raws li kev txheeb cais, thoob ntiaj teb cov hlau ore ntau lawm tau nce 63 lab tons txij lub Ib Hlis mus txog Lub Xya Hli, nrog rau ntau tshaj 25 lab tons.Los ntawm cov ntaub ntawv soj ntsuam satellite, thoob ntiaj teb ntau tshaj ntawm cov hlau ore yog tsim los ntawm cov chaw nres nkoj txawv teb chaws thiab cov khoom muag hauv hiav txwv.Steel Union cov hlau ore division kwv yees tias tsawg kawg yog 15 lab tons ntawm hlau ore stocks tau ntxiv rau txawv teb chaws.
Nws tuaj yeem pom tias tus qauv thiab tus lej qauv sib txawv, qhov kev siv tsis zoo ib yam, thiab cov lus xaus yuav txawv.Ib lub ntsiab lus yog tias qhov kev ua tau zoo ntawm cov qauv me me hauv qee lub sijhawm yuav tsis zoo ib yam nrog cov ntaub ntawv ntawm txhua qhov qauv, txawm hais tias nyob rau hauv cov nqe lus ntawm kev hloov pauv, tshwj xeeb tshaj yog nyob rau hauv cov nqe lus ntawm lub amplitude ntawm kev hloov, uas feem ntau yuav ua suab nrov. kev hloov pauv, thiab qhov kev hloov pauv no feem ntau yog taug kev.Tsis mus txog qhov kawg.
Nyob rau hauv luv luv, lub steel lag luam nyob rau hauv lub Cuaj Hli Ntuj, nyob rau hauv lub ntsiab lus ntawm cov lus qhia ntxiv ntawm ntau yam kev cai thiab kev siv ntawm kev siv dag zog, steel nqi yuav tsum tau mus rau hauv ib tug tiag tiag rebound tom qab rov qab downing ib ncig ntawm lub yim hli ntuj kawg.Ib zaug ntxiv, nws raug pom zoo tias steel mills yuav tsum nquag siv cov kev tswj hwm ntawm kev txo qis, txo qis kev tsim khoom thaum ntxov thiab cov txiaj ntsig ntxov, cov tub lag luam thiab cov khoom siv txuas ntxiv mus txuas ntxiv rau cov khoom siv qis qis, nquag siv yav tom ntej lossis kev xaiv cuab yeej arbitrage, ua tau raws li qhov tsawg. Kev ntsuas tus nqi ntawm thawj cov ntaub ntawv ntau, thiab tom qab ntawd ua tau raws li qhov ntsuas siab ntawm cov roj qub, lossis coj mus rau lub sijhawm zoo dua.
Post lub sij hawm: Sep-02-2023